2022 Stanley Cup Final: Lightning vs. Avalanche odds, NHL picks, Game 4 prediction from proven hockey model

The Tampa Bay Lightning aim to even the score against the Colorado Avalanche on Wednesday evening. The Lightning trail the Avalanche by a 2-1 margin in the 2022 Stanley Cup Final. Tampa Bay won Game 3 by a decisive 6-2 final score, picking up its first win of the best-of-seven series. That stopped the onslaught of Colorado, with the Lightning aiming to defend home ice again in Game 4.

Opening face-off is at 8 p.m. ET in Tampa. Both teams are listed at -110 (risk $110 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Avalanche vs. Lightning odds from Caesars Sportsbook. The over-under for total goals scored is six. Before making any Lightning vs. Avalanche picks, check out the NHL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates each NHL game 10,000 times. It enters the second week of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final on a 23-18 run on its top-rated NHL side picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has its sights on Avs vs. Lightning. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NHL odds and betting trends for Lightning vs. Avs: 

• Lightning vs. Avalanche money line: Colorado -110, Tampa Bay -110
• Lightning vs. Avalanche over-under: 6 goals
• Lightning vs. Avalanche puck line: Colorado -1.5 (+220)
• Lightning vs. Avalanche tickets: See tickets at StubHub
• COL: The Avalanche were 24-14-3 on the road in the regular season
• TB: The Lightning were 27-8-6 at home in the regular season

Why the Avalanche can win

Colorado has been a buzzsaw in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, never losing back-to-back games on the way to the 2-1 lead in this series. The Avalanche have only one road loss in the last eight games, and Game 3 was Colorado’s worst offensive performance in a road game during the postseason run. The Avalanche will be seeking revenge, and this is a team that scored at least four goals in each game of the Western Conference Finals on the way to a sweep. 

Including the regular season, Colorado is 4-1 against Tampa Bay this season, and the Avalanche are leading the Stanley Cup Playoffs in averaging 4.59 goals per game. Colorado has more than 200 total points in the playoffs, leading the league with a 33.9 percent power play percentage and 19 power play goals. That comes on the heels of a league-leading 67 power play goals during the regular season, and Colorado was in the top four of the league in goals, shots per game, and assists.

Why the Lightning can win

Tampa Bay has a wealth of experience and resilience, both of which were on display in the Game 3 win. Four members of the Lightning, ranging from Steven Stamkos to Victor Hedman, produced multiple points in Monday’s win, and this isn’t Tampa Bay’s first rodeo. In fact, the Lightning are the two-time reigning Stanley Cup champions with a very similar cast of characters, and Tampa Bay is the first team in nearly four decades to make three straight trips to the Stanley Cup Final. 

Offensively, the Lightning were in the top 10 of the NHL in goals, assists, power play percentage, and shooting percentage this season, riding a deep and talented roster to overall effectiveness. In the playoffs, Tampa Bay has also been stout defensively, yielding only 2.70 goals per game with a .920 save percentage. Tampa Bay was No. 6 in the NHL in goals allowed during the regular season, and with reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner Andrei Vasilevskiy tending the net, the Lightning can proceed with confidence.

How to make Lightning vs. Avalanche picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, as the simulations have the teams combining for 6.5 goals. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Lightning vs. Avalanche in Game 4 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Avalanche vs. Lightning money line to jump on, all from the advanced model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times.