Tottenham Hotspur balance rebuild and expectations as North London Derby vs. Arsenal nears

Ange Postecoglou’s first season at Tottenham Hotspur was, simply put, complicatedly eventful. A dream start as the Premier League’s last unbeaten team was swiftly crushed as injuries and suspensions derailed their campaign, exposing some weaknesses that saw them land in fifth place by season’s end, overperforming on preseason expectations and underperforming on early season hype. Inconsistent as it was, it was also a job well done as far as rebuilding seasons go — Spurs learned what worked and what did not, in theory offering a clear glimpse at what needed to change over the summer to build upon last season.

A few short months after capping off Postecoglou’s first season with a 3-0 win at Sheffield United, it feels like little has changed and with just one win to start the 2024-25 campaign, it feels like Spurs are in a peculiar spot.

Postecoglou will roll with a squad that resembles the one he had last season, and there are some advantages to this. Not only will he have the benefit of continuity with a group of players that actually showed plenty of promise last season, the Australian can also boast that his team is well-rested. Only a handful of Spurs players played a major chunk of minutes at the summer competitions — center backs Cristan Romero, Micky van de Ven and Radu Dragusin, as well as midfielder Rodrigo Bentancur.

There’s no need to necessarily conflate consistency with stagnation, either, in large part because Spurs actually were busy during a less-than-exciting summer transfer window. It is just that they made one, ready-to-use signing this summer in Dominic Solanke, who scored 21 goals for Bournemouth last season and has the potential to impress for the club once he recovers from a short-term injury. The majority of their summer funds were used on teenagers like 19-year-old winger Wilson Odobert and 18-year-old midfielders Lucas Bergvall and Archie Gray, all of whom have already made their Premier League debuts but feel like picks for the future rather than the present.

This is not inherently unfamiliar territory for Spurs, who have a history of betting on youngsters and did so successfully during Mauricio Pochettino’s impressive spell at the club. Though summer signings should not be considered the be-all and end-all of a team’s ambition, the transfer strategy feels not just like a bet on the future — it also feels like a bet that Postecoglou’s tweaks will be enough to keep them competitive now.

It is too early in the 2024-25 season to actually suggest that is a poor wager, especially considering Postecoglou has already put in the hard work of building a tactical foundation that is effective at its best. Spurs play with a clear, attack-minded identity, the first building block for any successful team. The problems that cost them at times last season, though, have gotten in their way again this season.

Despite ranking within the Premier League’s top four in most possession, passing and attacking categories so far, Spurs have just one win in three games to start the season. Postecoglou’s side have shown signs of being wasteful to start this season — they had nearly 70% of the ball in their 1-1 draw against Leicester City and 12 shots but generated just 1.18 expected goals, and in their 2-1 loss to Newcastle United had 65% possession and 13 shots but just 1.26 expected goals. They have struggled somewhat to create meaningful chances despite their offensive prowess, which includes Maddison and Son Heung-min, who started last season in very strong form.

Spurs’ early season failure to close out games goes hand-in-hand with a defensive culpability that is a feature, not a bug of Postecoglou’s attack-first system. His preferred high line constantly leaves the team susceptible, something that a team could overcome through some combination of tactical changes or personnel. Postecoglou may have to find a fix fast considering the personnel he has might not be up for the task — while the actual back line feels resolved, the midfield has been off to a rocky start this season. The trio of Bentancur, Yves Bissouma and Pape Matar Sarr have yet to impress, and this season could tell if this is either a temporary problem or one that will require new additions. Tottenham’s strange deadline day deal involving Real Betis’ Johnny Cardoso could offer a solution, but the team is still months away from making a decision on that front.

Sunday’s faceoff with Arsenal, as a result, will serve as an all-important check-in on Tottenham’s unique bet on their present, especially considering the less-than-ideal results are no reason to write them off. They are much more than a plucky underdog against last season’s runners-up for the Premier League title, as their attacking potential demonstrates. Spurs may have the benefit of playing against a depleted Arsenal — Declan Rice is suspended for the game, while captain Martin Odegaard might miss out with an ankle injury. A near-identical version of this year’s Spurs team also played two competitive games against a high-flying rival last season, tying 2-2 at Emirates Stadium last September while losing 3-2 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in April.

The latest edition of the North London Derby, as a result, is not a foregone conclusion. Even as the underdogs, though, Spurs will have to prove that they can get out of their own way against a team that’s rightfully comfortable in their own skin. The performance, more so than the result, could be a bellwether for what to expect this season from Spurs — and if there is a dissonance between their future-focused summer business and the progression of Postecoglou’s vision for competing in the present.