Sunday’s Madrid Derby promises to be influential on the La Liga summit with Barcelona running away ahead of bitter rivals Real Madrid with a chance to possibly move seven points clear this weekend. Neighbors Atletico are two points behind Los Blancos and will be relishing the chance to potentially overtake Carlo Ancelotti’s men with a win at Estadio Metropolitano, but a loss could also see them slip five points behind their fierce foes, which would open up a sizeable advantage for both Barca and Real in terms of the title race being between the two of them. Kylian Mbappe has already been ruled out of this one so will have to wait for his first taste of derby day in the Spanish capital and it is worth noting that the defending champions are unbeaten in almost a year with their last defeat coming against Atleti. Not only is this second against third, but there is very little between the two sides with just two points and three goals separating them with the hosts’ defense stronger than their visitors’ back line although the away attack is more potent than the home one.
We look at three keys for this one.
How will Real fare without Kylian Mbappe?
There are few positive ways to spin Mbappe’s absence, but one possible benefit to come from the French superstar’s time out is the greater number of minutes that Rodrygo and Endrick should get in the next few weeks. Ancelotti remains spoiled for choice in attack and Vini Jr. can even occupy his preferred role without having to worry too much about competing on the field with Mbappe given their similar playing styles. Jude Bellingham’s questionable fitness since the start of the season is also something to be wary of for Ancelotti with a view to another long season and an uphill battle to already make up ground on Barca. In that respect, going back to what worked so well last campaign could benefit Real as they can ill afford another sluggish showing which has been the trend so far as Mbappe takes his time to adapt despite some respectable numbers individually and collectively.
Will Atleti use Julian Alvarez as a super sub?
The Argentina international’s story so far with Atletico has been similar to that of his time with Manchester City, with his two goals coming as a substitute and his main minutes not really resulting in as much. Antoine Griezmann has remained the team’s creative hub so far with two goals and three assists to his name, with one of those teeing up Alvarez for one of those two goals this midweek in a late 1-0 win over Celta Vigo. Marcos Llorente has been the main recipient of that creativity with two goals from Griezmann’s hard graft and it feeds into this idea that Atleti could be better off in this game with Alvarez coming in from the bench in the final 30 minutes to exploit a tired Real who already need to be mindful of their star players’ accumulated minutes.
Atleti’s defense vs. Real’s attack
The numbers are very interesting ahead of this one with Mbappe’s goals quite telling as three of his tally of five so far have been penalties, which illustrates the true nature of his tricky start to life with Real in La Liga which is perhaps glossed over due to the numbers looking fairly respectable. If you take those three spot kicks out of Los Blancos’ total then Real and Atleti’s goal difference is level and the home side’s stronger defense really starts to count for something more. Having conceded two fewer goals so far, if Diego Simeone’s men can keep a rejigged Real attack at bay then another narrow win could be on the cards with Mbappe’s absence and having to revert to last year’s setup to Atleti’s benefit in a game with such high stakes.
KVSP