Bears vs. Commanders predictions: Odds, total, player props, pick, how to watch ‘Thursday Night Football’

The Washington Commanders and Chicago Bears will get Week 6 in the NFL started when these NFC clubs square up at Solider Field for “Thursday Night Football.” This is hardly the clash of titans that a primetime game typically sees, but at least we might get a touchdown in this matchup, unlike last week’s Thursday night game … right? Coming into this head-to-head, Washington is tied for a league-worst 1-4 ATS record, while Chicago has been a respectable 2-2-1 ATS. 

Here, we’ll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this game has to offer. Along with the spread and total, we’ll also take a look at several player props and hand in our picks for how we see this showdown unfolding. 

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook. 

How to watch

Date: Thursday, Oct. 13 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET

Location: Soldier Field (Chicago)

Stream: Amazon Prime Video

Follow: CBS Sports App

Odds: PICK, O/U 38 

Line movement

After sitting as a pick’em for most of the summer, the lookahead on this line made the Commanders a 1-point favorite. However, that shifted back towards a pick’em following the events of Week 5, with another uninspiring showing by Washington and a solid game by Chicago, albeit in a loss to the Vikings. 

The pick: Bears PK. Neither one of these teams will be mistaken for a Super Bowl contender, but it does feel like Chicago is playing better ball right now. They finally saw some success in the passing game last week with Justin Fields and are facing a Washington defense that ranks 27th in the NFL in points per game. While Chicago’s offense may not have the most firepower, I trust them more than what the Commanders are rolling out on that side of the ball. If you remove their Week 1 win over Jacksonville, Washington is averaging just 15.5 points per game, allowing 4.8 sacks per game, and has a horrid 33% third down conversion rate. After Ron Rivera called out the play of Carson Wentz (and then took it back), this team feels like one that’s about to cave in on itself. 

Key trend: Bears are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing road record. 

Over/Under total

The lookahead had this total sitting at 40 and that held through most of Sunday before beginning its descent. It fell to 39.5 by Sunday evening and was down to 38.5 by Monday morning. The total fell as low as 37.5 but has since crept back up to 38 on the eve of this matchup. 

The pick: Under 38. This is just a slight lean on the Under as 38 does feel like a small number even if these teams don’t boast the most high-octane offenses that the NFL has to offer. Washington is averaging 15.5 points since beating the Jags in Week 1. Meanwhile, the Bears have gone north of 20 points just twice through five games and are averaging 17.2 points per game this season. 

Key trend: Under is 21-8 in the Bears’ last 29 home games.

Justin Fields props

• Passing touchdowns: 0.5 (Over -234, Under +165)
• Passing yards: 169.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
• Rushing yards: 42.5 (Over -104, Under -131)
• Passing attempts: 23.5 (Over -109, Under -125)
• Longest pass completion: 32.5 (Over -113, Under -121)
• Completions: 14.5 (Over -101, Under -135)
• Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -115, Under -119)

Justin Fields is coming off his best day as a passer this season in Week 5 where he completed 71.4% of his passes for a season-high 208 yards. It’s possible that Matt Eberflus is starting to utilize Fields’ arm a bit more and he has gone over this passing yards prop in each of his past two games, which also includes at least 20 pass attempts. Meanwhile, Washington will not have cornerback William Jackson (back) for this game, which should help Fields move the ball through the air a bit more. The favorite bet, however, is the Over on Fields’ rushing yards at 42.5. He’s gone over this number in three straight games coming into Week 6. Fields has also gone over this prop in seven of his last 12 starts. 

Carson Wentz props

• Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +146, Under -204)
• Passing yards: 217.5 (Over -121, Under -113)
• Rushing yards: 11.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
• Passing attempts: 32.5 (Over -109, Under -125)
• Longest pass completion: 34.5 (Over -123, Under -111)
• Completions: 20.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
• Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -121, Under -113)

While I believe the Bears will come out of this game with a win, you can’t deny Wentz’s record on Thursday night. The quarterback is 6-0 SU on “Thursday Night Football” and has played well in those games, logging a 15-2 TD-INT ratio and a 107.4 passer rating. That said, I think this situation may be entirely different for Wentz, so I’m going to fade that prior history a bit. I like the Over 0.5 interceptions thanks to the pressure he’ll be under as Washington’s O-lIne ranks 29th in the league in adjusted sack rate. Wentz’s 20 sacks and six interceptions are the third most in the NFL coming into Week 6. As we’ve seen, that pressure will force him into a mistake.  

Player props to consider

Brian Robinson Jr. total rushing attempts: Over 11.5 (-123). Robinson made his NFL debut last week sitting out the first month following an attempted robbery where he was shot. In that return to the field, he carried the ball nine times while playing just 29% of the offensive snaps. He’s going to be the RB1 in this offense and now that he’s gotten his feet wet, I expect Ron Rivera to let him loose a bit more. For reference, Antonio Gibson went over this mark in each of his first four games while filling in for Robinson. 

Cole Kmet total receiving yards: Over 30.5 (-115). If we think Fields is going to be allowed to throw a bit more, then we should also like one of his top pass-catchers, especially at this low of a number. Kmet had a slow start to the year but has since gone over this prop twice over the last three weeks. In that same stretch, he’s only missed one of his 10 targets.