Bleacher Report proposes Rockets trade for Utah’s Donovan Mitchell

A Mitchell-to-Houston trade isn’t implausible, but it’s hard to imagine it happening under anything close to those terms.

Even if we concede that KJ Martin isn’t too valuable — after all, he appears to want out of Houston at the moment, and he doesn’t have a clear path to rotation minutes — look at the rest of that trade. Kevin Porter Jr. was a first-round draft pick in 2019, and the Rockets reportedly have interest in giving him a contract extension this offseason. At a minimum, it’s fair to conclude that he’s still viewed internally as having first-round-pick value, and perhaps more.

Similarly, Houston has turned down trade offers for Eric Gordon — who would almost have to be included, for salary matching purposes — because they believe he’s worth more than a late first-round pick. Finally, while Usman Garuba had an injury plagued 2021-22 rookie season, he’s only a year removed from being the third of Houston’s four first-round picks in the 2021 NBA draft. It’s hard to imagine his internal value being significantly lower, at this time.

So, the deal Buckley is proposing involves three players that Stone probably has a first-round valuation on, and that’s before we get to the four future first-round picks that he also puts in this deal. Those include two from Brooklyn, whose future remains quite cloudy.

And while Buckley didn’t include Houston’s own first-round pick in 2023, this deal likely pushes its expected value down a few slots, since adding Mitchell would make the Rockets a better team.

One small silver lining is that the Rockets would still retain at least some salary cap space in 2023, since Mitchell’s $32.6-million salary for 2023-24 would effectively replace Porter’s $9.7-million cap hold on Houston’s books, along with smaller numbers for Martin and Garuba. That would reduce, but certainly not eliminate, Houston’s financial flexibility in 2023.

Even so, it would basically lock the Rockets into a core of Green, Mitchell, Sengun, Smith, Eason, and whatever additions they could make with their own 2023 first-round draft pick and that ensuing financial flexibility. Is that enough to make a legitimate title push? If not, it’s unclear how Houston would get there, since this would basically deplete the Rockets of their future draft capital, particularly when considering the Stepien rule.

If we consider Porter, Gordon, and Garuba as having first-round valuations, the Rockets would effectively be giving up seven first-round picks in this deal, along with worsening the outlook for their own 2023 draft pick and their financial flexibility that same year.

Even if some of those are valued as low-first-round assets — like, say, Gordon, Garuba, and the 2023 first-round pick from Milwaukee — the cumulative value toll feels excessive for a player like Mitchell who is certainly very good, but has yet to show a transcendent ability to be the best player on a potential title team. It probably isn’t wise for the Rockets to effectively empty their asset cupboard unless they strongly believe they already have such a player or are acquiring one.

There is an argument to be made that the gap between Mitchell and realistic veteran targets in 2023 (by free agency or trade) is bigger than any of the potential negative impact on 2023 draft positioning. That’s why it would be foolish to entirely rule out a Mitchell deal. But it almost certainly wouldn’t come at such a hefty asset price, because that simply does not make sense from Houston’s perspective.

As for whether a lower Mitchell price is realistic, that likely depends on the rest of the market. With many motivated suitors, led by a New York franchise that appears determined to make a splash and return to relevancy at Madison Square Garden, it feels unlikely. What’s doable for Houston probably isn’t for Utah, given the apparent seller’s market for Mitchell, and what works for Danny Ainge and the Jazz in that type of environment is likely a no-go for Stone and the Rockets.

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— Brian Windhorst (@WindhorstESPN) August 26, 2022