College basketball rankings: Preseason AP Top 25 poll’s most overrated and underrated teams

The AP Top 25 men’s basketball poll was released Monday, signaling the start of the 2024-25 college basketball season is on the horizon. Kansas earned the No. 1 spot for the second consecutive year after earning 30 of 60 possible first-place votes. Alabama and UConn — the teams ranked second and third behind them — received double-digit votes from the media for the top spot.

Kansas has been the preseason No. 1 team in college basketball five times since Bill Self took over the program over two decades ago. After starting last season as the preseason top-ranked team, the Jayhawks failed to meet expectations and lost during the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive year.

The Jayhawks will have some new competition in the Big 12 with Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah joining the fold from the Pac-12 and Texas and Oklahoma leaving the conference to join the SEC.

The Big Ten will also look drastically different with the additions of Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington, giving the league a West Coast footprint. The Bruins were one of four teams from the Big Ten ranked in the initial Top 25 poll and also happen to be one of our “underrated” teams heading into the season. With that said, here are the overrated and underrated teams from the poll.

Overrated: Texas

AP Top 25 ranking: No. 19

The SEC had nine teams ranked in the preseason Top 25. Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Texas A&M and Arkansas ranked ahead of Texas in the poll, while Florida, Kentucky and Ole Miss weren’t far behind. All three teams have an argument to be ranked ahead of the Longhorns and our writers would agree because Texas was picked to finish eighth in our SEC expert picks. 

Texas’ roster won’t be short of talent, as coach Rodney Terry reloaded by adding Jordan Pope (Oregon State), Tramon Mark (Arkansas) and Arthur Kaluma (Kansas State) via the transfer portal. The Longhorns also welcome Tre Johnson, the No. 6 overall recruit from the 2024 recruiting cycle by 247Sports to the program. The Longhorns will have a chance to prove themselves early with a showdown against a new-look Ohio State team on opening night and a nonconference matchup against UConn in Austin on Dec. 8 before starting the SEC gauntlet at the turn of the calendar year.

Underrated: Duke

AP Top 25 ranking: No. 7

On the surface, Duke’s ranking of No. 7 seems fair but they should be ranked higher. Freshman phenom Cooper Flagg may be the best player in the sport by the end of the season because of his undeniable two-way talent. But it’s not just Flagg that makes this Duke roster great. Tyrese Proctor bypassed the NBA Draft for the second consecutive season and his return will give coach Jon Scheyer a steady presence on both ends of the floor. Caleb Foster is a potential breakout candidate after coming off the bench last season as a freshman. 

Transfer portal additions Sion James (Tulane), Maliq Brown (Syracuse) and Mason Gillis (Purdue) should insulate the top-ranked recruiting class headlined by Flagg. With games on the schedule against Kentucky, Arizona and No. 1 Kansas during the first month of the season, the Blue Devils will move up quickly in the poll if they handle business against those three teams.

Overrated: Rutgers

AP Top 25 ranking: No. 25

Rutgers has one of the biggest “boom or bust” rosters in college basketball. The Scarlet Knights will be counting on freshmen Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper to live up to the hype to earn their third NCAA Tournament appearance this century. Signing two top-five recruits doesn’t guarantee success, as five of the previous eight teams to accomplish the feat failed to reach the second weekend of the tournament.

Rutgers is coming off a season in which the program went 15-17 overall and 7-13 in Big Ten play  — good enough for 13th in the Big Ten. With Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington joining the conference, the competition will get even tougher. Illinois, St. John’s and Texas Tech all had a strong case for the final spot in the poll.

Underrated: UCLA

AP Top 25 ranking: No. 22

The Bruins are a popular pick to win the Big Ten because of how coach Mick Cronin has reconstructed the roster. UCLA’s leading scorer from last season (Dylan Andrews) is back, and so is Sebastian Mack, who averaged 12.1 points as a freshman. Cronin added William Kyle lll (South Dakota State), Tyler Bilodeau (Oregon State) and Kobe Johnson (USC) from the transfer portal.

After missing out on the NCAA Tournament for the first time in Cronin’s tenure at UCLA, this team should not only return to the Big Dance but compete for a Big Ten title. Purdue (No. 14) was the highest-ranked team from the conference and UCLA should’ve been ranked somewhere right behind them.

Underrated: Arkansas

AP Top 25 ranking: No. 16

It’s a new era in Fayetteville. John Calipari is now running the ship after spending the last 15 seasons as the coach at Kentucky. Calipari rebuilt the Razorbacks roster by utilizing the transfer portal and bringing some former recruits from his time at Kentucky along with him to his next destination.

The headliner of Calipari’s transfer portal class was former Florida Atlantic star Johnell Davis, the No. 1 player in the CBS Sports Transfer Rankings. Davis was the 2023-24 AAC co-Player of the Year and should provide Calipari with ample scoring. Constructing a brand new roster with a new program isn’t an easy task, but Calipari is capable of doing just that. It wouldn’t be surprising if Arkansas is ranked in the top 10 by the time SEC play starts.