College football odds, lines, picks, bets, predictions for Week 4, 2021: Proven model backing LSU, UCLA

The SEC had a light first round of conference play last weekend and No. 1 Alabama and No 2. Georgia both failed to cover as favorites in their respective games against Florida and South Carolina. This weekend, the conference’s top matchup between No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 16 Arkansas is also one of the most anticipated on the Week 4 college football schedule. The Aggies are 5.5-point favorites in the latest Week 4 college football odds from Caesars Sportsbook, but Arkansas has been one of the surprise teams of the season.

Will the SEC’s top teams fare better against the spread this week? The Week 4 college football lines feature a few other interesting games that feature non-traditional top 25 programs. Before making any Week 4 college football picks on those games or others, be sure to see the latest college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 4 of the 2021 season on a 72-58 run on all top-rated college football picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 college football odds from Caesars and locked in picks for every FBS matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 4 college football predictions

One of the top college football picks the model is recommending for Week 4: LSU (-2.5) covers at Mississippi State in an SEC West matchup at noon ET on Saturday. Both teams are 2-1 straight-up, while LSU is 1-1 against the spread in FBS play and Mississippi State has a 1-2 ATS mark. There were certainly some controversial calls, but Mississippi State ultimately came away with a 31-29 loss against underdog Memphis last week.

LSU hasn’t been tested since its Week 1 loss to UCLA, but the model sees the Tigers as the more balanced team in this matchup. The simulations show Mike Leach’s squad barely cracking 50 yards of rushing, while LSU goes for over 100 on the ground. With both teams easily topping 300 yards of passing, that’s a big difference in the sides. LSU takes this one by seven points in the simulations, covering almost 60 percent of the time. You can also back the over (57) since the model is projecting 61 total points. 

Another one of the college football predictions from the model: No. 24 UCLA (-6) covers on the road against Stanford at 6 p.m. ET on Saturday. Unlike the SEC, there is room for new teams to make a move to the top of the Pac-12 this season. UCLA has positioned itself to challenge for one of those spots, and the Bruins have a great chance to push forward this week against the Cardinal.

Even in a close loss last weekend to Fresno State, UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw for 278 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Bruins running back Zach Charbonnet has a 10.5-yard per carry average and Stanford’s defense surrenders more than 210 rushing yards per game. That sort of offensive output supports why the model’s simulations show UCLA covering the spread 60 percent of the time. 

How to make Week 4 college football picks 

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 4 college football schedule, and it’s calling for a Top 25 favorite to go down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what college football picks can you make with confidence? And which Top 25 favorite goes down hard? Check out the latest college football odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,000 in profit over the past five-plus seasons, and find out.

Week 4 college football odds (via Caesars)

Here are the college football lines for some of Week 4’s most notable matchups:

Thursday, Sept. 23

Marshall vs. Appalachian State (-7.5, 57)

Friday, Sept. 24

MTSU vs. Charlotte (-2.5, 56.5)

Wake Forest vs. Virginia (-4, 67)

Liberty vs. Syracuse (+6, 52.5)

Fresno State vs. UNLV (+31.5, 58.5)

Saturday, Sept. 25

Georgia vs. Vanderbilt (+34, 51)

Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin (-5.5, 46.5)

UMass vs. Coastal Carolina (-36, 67)

Rutgers vs. Michigan (-18.5, 51.5)

Clemson vs. NC State (+10, 47)

Iowa State vs. Baylor (+6.5, 47.5)

Colorado State vs. Iowa (-23, 44.5)

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas (+5.5, 48)

Georgia State vs. Auburn (-27, 57)

UCLA vs. Stanford (+6, 58.5)

Nebraska vs. Michigan State (-5, 51.5)

Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State (-6, 45)

North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech (+12, 63)

Akron vs. Ohio State (-49, 67.5)

Alabama vs. Southern Mississippi (+45, 57.5)

Oklahoma vs. West Virginia (+16.5, 59)

USF vs. BYU (-23, 52)

Arizona vs. Oregon (-28, 58)