College football predictions: Second-chance expert picks for 2023 national champion, playoff field, more

Seven weeks into the 2023 college football season, let’s just say it has largely played out as expected, which stands in stark contrast to where the sport stood one year ago. Perhaps the biggest surprise is how prominent the Pac-12 has remained at the midway point. Though Washington is the lone undefeated team, Oregon proved to nearly be its equal last Saturday with USC putting forward a tremendous offensive performance most of the year to this point. 

Georgia remains the No. 1 team in the nation, though its footing has lost some ground with Michigan (namely) providing competition for that top spot. While the Bulldogs do sit at the head of the AP Top 25 and Coaches Poll, the Wolverines are leading the pack in the CBS Sports 133. Ohio State, Penn State, Oklahoma, Washington and North Carolina are also receiving plenty of love as undefeated Power Five programs.

The two-time reigning champion Dawgs and their incredibly soft schedule may not face much competition down the stretch, but the Big Ten powers are set to begin clashing soon, which should provide some clarity at the top of the rankings before the College Football Playoff gets involved with positioning teams in a couple weeks.

There’s also still plenty of belief in one-loss teams Texas and Oregon, though Alabama seems stuck in the mud offensively. 

Unlike last season, when there were five open jobs among Power Five programs at the midway point, not a single coach has lost his job for on-field performance. The only open position is at Michigan State after Mel Tucker was fired for off-field reasons. It appears as if it might take a few more weeks for the coaching carousel to start swinging.

We at CBS Sports open each season by having our staff break down its picks for the College Football Playoff, national champion, Coach of the Year and Heisman Trophy winner. But we are human, and even we can get things wrong. There was even a shakeup in our All-America selections on our midseason team.

That’s why we’re back at the halfway point of the season with a handful of second-chance expert picks. Here’s how we believe the rest of the 2023 college football season will play out.

College Football Playoff predictions

First two out

2023 national champion

Georgia: A 51-13 thrashing of Kentucky on Oct. 7 proved Georgia is more than capable of completing the three-peat mission as the Bulldogs outgained the Wildcats 608-183 and dominated in all facets against an opponent deemed by many to be their toughest test. The back half of Georgia’s schedule is at least moderately challenging, which should help the Dawgs hit postseason gear. This team doesn’t have the high-end defensive talent of its predecessors, but it has more than enough to be the last team standing yet again. — David Cobb (also Tom Fornelli, Shehan Jeyarajah)

Michigan: Michigan has yet to be tested against top-tier competition, but it speaks to the championship caliber of this 2023 team. As the schedule should be getting more difficult with conference play underway, the beatdowns are intensifying. The Wolverines have beaten their four Big Ten foes by an average of 37.3 points per game and have yet to allow any of their seven opponents to score more than 10 points. The fact that Michigan has improved over the last month speaks to the trajectory of a group that knows when it needs to be playing its best football. After two straight one-and-done showings in the College Football Playoff, I think Michigan finally breaks through. — Chip Patterson (also Dennis Dodd, Jerry Palm)

Ohio State: The Buckeyes have been cruising despite the fact that several superstars have either been playing banged up or missed games entirely. Obviously, that will change. Unlike previous Ohio State teams, this defense isn’t a liability. First-year starting quarterback Kyle McCord has thrown 11 touchdowns since tossing his only interception in Week 1 and is second in the Big Ten in passer rating (165.87). More momentum could be headed his way if he can lead this team to a win over Penn State this weekend. It’s all about getting hot at the right time. Ohio State’s ceiling is as high as any team in the country, and the Buckeyes may be getting hot at the perfect time. — Barrett Sallee

Midseason Coach of the Year

Brent Venables, Oklahoma: The Sooners were down bad in the wake of Lincoln Riley’s abrupt departure. They watched not just a coach with Big 12 title rings walk out the door but take the eventual Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback with him as well. Venables was brought in to steady the ship and prepare Oklahoma for the SEC move in 2024, so you can imagine how unsettling it was for the Sooners to go from competing for Big 12 championships to finishing tied for seventh in the league standings with a 6-7 record. However, a buzz that started with a barrage of recruiting wins has been validated by on-field success. Oklahoma has improved its defense — Venables’ area of expertise — and cleaned up its game to occupy the playoff-contender status that Sooners fans expect. From 6-7 to potentially CFP-bound with a team that has trailed for less than 15 minutes of game time all season, Venables has done more than just steady the ship. He’s provided Sooners fans reasons to believe they hit the ground running in the SEC. — Patterson (Fornelli, Cobb)

Kalen DeBoer, Washington: Three years ago, this South Dakota native was coaching Fresno State. Before that, he was the offensive coordinator at Indiana. DeBoer struck gold when he was the right-man, right-place option to replace Jimmy Lake at Washington. DeBoer had no real connections to the school but did know an old quarterback he coached at Indiana. Bringing in Michael Penix Jr. turned this program around to the point it may win the nation’s toughest league and be in line for the College Football Playoff. Going 17-2 in 1 1/2 seasons puts DeBoer at the top of his profession. As Penix said Saturday after being asked whether Washington was ready for the Big Ten: “They better be ready [for us].” — Dodd (Sallee)

Mike Elko, Duke: The Blue Devils were a nice story after winning nine games in 2022, but most expected the ride to end there. Duke was picked to finish sixth in the ACC — tied with Pitt — and projected to take a step back as league divisions dissolved. Instead, Elko’s team crushed Clemson, took Notre Dame to the wire and is one of three remaining teams without an ACC loss. Duke sits No. 16 in the AP Top 25, its highest mark since 1994. The second half of the schedule is exceedingly difficult, but the Blue Devils have positioned themselves as one of four serious ACC contenders heading into the home stretch. Give Elko his flowers because the Blue Devils are one of the best stories in college football. — Jeyarajah

Mike Norvell, Florida State: Just a couple of years ago, people wondered whether Norvell would be able to keep the Florida State job. Now, thanks to some ramped up recruiting and success in the transfer portal, Norvell is halfway to putting the Seminoles in the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2014. The last time FSU played for a national championship was after the 2013 season when it captured the final title of the BCS era. Norvell has helped bring this program back to relevance and has it in position for even more. — Palm

Heisman Trophy frontrunner

Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington: The statistical case for Penix is silly. He ranks No. 2 in yards per attempt, No. 2 in total offense and No. 4 in passing touchdowns for the only remaining undefeated team in the Pac-12. To really understand Penix’s Heisman case, however, watch the end of Washington’s win over Oregon. Up four points, Ducks coach Dan Lanning opted to go for a key fourth down near midfield to try and keep the ball out of Penix’s hands. Two plays after the failed fourth-down attempt, Penix had his Heisman moment with a game-winning dart to Rome Odunze. Washington has a 13-game winning streak — second-longest active streak behind Georgia (24) — with wins over Texas, Oregon State, Washington State and Oregon twice. No player in college football has been more inevitable than Michael Penix Jr. — Jeyarajah (Dodd, Palm, Patterson, Cobb)

JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan: There can be an advantage to not being in the Heisman race spotlight all season. The player deemed a favorite in September is quickly stripped of eligibility the moment he plays poorly. Then, there’s the player on a national title contender who isn’t getting much attention because his team hasn’t played its biggest games yet. The three interceptions Caleb Williams threw against Notre Dame? Heisman campaign over! The three interceptions JJ McCarthy threw in a 31-6 win over Bowling Green? Nobody knows they happened and nobody will care if he plays well against Penn State and Ohio State before leading the Wolverines to another Big Ten title and College Football Playoff berth. — Fornelli

Jordan Travis, QB, Florida State: The Seminoles’ signal caller set the tone for his Heisman Trophy campaign in the Week 1 win over LSU and hasn’t let up since. He is the unquestioned leader of a team that is not only in contention for a College Football Playoff spot but one that could be considered a favorite at this point. Travis has been wildly consistent. He has only thrown one interception and is fourth in the nation in touchdown-to-interception ratio among passers with 100 or more pass attempts. More importantly, though, is what’s ahead of him. Aside from the Duke game this weekend, Florida State’s schedule is extremely manageable. Like it or not, voters love fresh blood and are reluctant to award the Heisman to players who have been in the conversation before. Fair or not, he has cooked up a perfect Heisman recipe and will feast a couple of weeks after Thanksgiving. — Sallee