Corner Picks: Best bets, odds, predictions for Inter Milan vs. Roma, Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Dortmund, more

There’s no such thing as parity in European soccer. When you look around the major leagues on the continent, there are rarely more than three teams in any of the leagues capable of winning the title in any given season, and even then, one tends to separate itself from the pack. Still, the Premier League has had something resembling parity during its existence.

Manchester United won the league eight times in the first 11 seasons, with Arsenal winning twice and Blackburn Rovers (remember Blackburn Rovers?) winning once. Since that dominant run, we’ve seen six different clubs win the league in 18 years, but I get the sense that we’re already in the midst of another dominant run like United’s that won’t end soon.

Manchester City and Liverpool are separated by a point in the standings, but City have a much easier schedule remaining and are likely to win their fourth title in five seasons. And now it looks like they’re adding Erling Haaland this summer. We saw City flex their financial muscle for years by spreading the cash around and building a team with superior depth. Now they’ve reached the point that they can spend big on global superstars to add to an already superior team.

I fear that City will do to the Premier League what PSG have done to Ligue 1, Bayern have done to the Bundesliga, and Real Madrid and Barcelona have done to La Liga.

Our only recourse is to win every bet so we can buy a team with the financial backing to compete with them. All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.

Inter Milan vs. Roma

Date: Saturday, April 23 | Time: 12 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

When Roma scored late against Napoli Monday to steal a point and pick up a 1-1 draw, they kept the team’s streak of 11 straight Serie A matches without a loss running, but ended another streak. It was the first time in 12 Serie A matches that Roma allowed an opponent to finish a match with an expected goal (xG) total higher than 1.0. This current run has been built on outstanding defending, and while most of it came against inferior opponents, there were matches with Lazio and Atalanta sprinkled in.

Saturday at San Siro will be a much tougher test for Roma, and even if they’ve been playing better of late, I have a hard time not going with Inter right now. Not only is Inter playing for the scudetto, but they’ve been in top form themselves. They’ve won four straight across all competitions and outscored opponents (including Juventus and AC Milan) 9-1. Furthermore, have you seen what Inter have done against Roma this season? In December, they won the first match 3-0 at the Stadio Olimpico, allowing Roma to get only one shot on target. The Coppa Italia quarterfinal at San Siro didn’t look much different, as Roma only had one shot on target and Inter won 2-0. Maybe Roma find the back of the net the third time around, but even if they do, I’m not sure one will be enough. Pick: Inter (-165)

Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Dortmund

Date: Saturday, April 23 | Time: 12:30 p.m. ET | Watch: ABC

I don’t often include Bundesliga matches here, but this is Der Klassiker, and I can’t send you into the weekend without giving you a reason to watch. While these are the two best teams in Germany, there are no stakes based on the result, as Bayern have just about sewn up the league, but that doesn’t matter. Der Klassiker is a methamphetamine. The goals come, and they keep coming, and two hours later, you come to after traveling through many different planes of existence, not sure what happened, what it meant, or where you got such a wicked headache.

The last 10 meetings between these clubs have seen an average of 4.5 goals per match. That includes a 1-0 Bayern win in May 2020, a result akin to seeing a unicorn riding a blue whale down your street. I could give you a bunch of fancy numbers to back the pick up too, but I don’t have to. Just make the bet and strap yourself in for one hell of a ride. Pick: Over 3.5 (-150)

Chelsea vs. West Ham United

Date: Sunday, April 24 | Time: 9 a.m. ET | Watch: USA

Chelsea’s 4-2 loss to Arsenal earlier this week was one of those matches where the terrible performances of the players led to an exhilarating game, but my main takeaway was the attitude of Chelsea. They look like a team ready to be done, and I don’t blame them. It’s a locker room full of players and coaches who have no idea what the future holds as the club’s ownership remains in the air, and they were eliminated from the Champions League by Real Madrid. They’re also in a spot in the standings where they know they can’t win the league, but it would be nearly impossible to fall out of the top four and miss the Champions League next season.

In other words, there’s not a whole lot to play for, and it showed in the team’s defensive effort against Arsenal. West Ham have plenty to play for, as they’re still in the Europa League and fighting for the chance to play in the Europa League again next season. I have an inkling the Hammers are prioritizing the current Europa League (winning it comes with a Champions League berth), so I won’t be shocked if we see something of a “lesser” lineup for this match as the Hammers look to stay fresh for next week’s Europa League semi against Frankfurt. This match might resemble a friendly scrimmage at the park more closely than a Premier League match. Pick: Over 2.5

Weekend Parlay

This is the chalkiest parlay I’ve ever thrown into Corner Picks. I feel like one of those sports fans who roots for the Yankees, Lakers, Cowboys and Alabama football right now. Anyway, it pays +119.

• Manchester City (-950)
• PSG (-350)
• Liverpool (-540)
• Barcelona (-335)