Dolphins vs. Saints odds, spread, line: Monday Night Football picks, prediction by NFL model on 133-96 run

Week 16 of the 2021 NFL schedule features a highly intriguing matchup on Monday Night Football. The New Orleans Saints will host the Miami Dolphins in the 15th game for both teams, and there are similarities with the profile of each club. New Orleans is 7-7 overall with a 2-4 record at home in the Caesars Superdome. Miami is also 7-7 overall with a 2-4 mark away from home this season. Ian Book will start at quarterback for New Orleans.

Kick-off is at 8:15 p.m. ET in New Orleans. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Dolphins as three-point home favorites, while the Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 37 in the latest Dolphins vs. Saints odds. Before you make any Saints vs. Dolphins picks and NFL predictions, be sure to check out what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 16 of the 2021 season on an incredible 133-96 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Dolphins vs. Saints, and just locked in its Monday Night Football picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Dolphins vs. Saints:

• Dolphins vs. Saints spread: Dolphins -3 
• Dolphins vs. Saints over-under: 37 points 
• Dolphins vs. Saints money line: Saints +140, Dolphins -160
• MIA: Dolphins are 7-7 against the spread in 2021 
• NO: Saints are 7-6-1 against the spread this season
  
  

Why the Dolphins can cover

Miami is on a roll, winning six straight games, and the Dolphins have quality balance between offense and defense. Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL in completion percentage (69.9 percent), with top-eight marks in sack rate (4.13 percent) and QBR (56.4), and the Dolphins are converting 41.9 percent of third down chances. Miami is also No. 3 in the NFL in fourth down efficiency, moving the chains on more than 61 percent of attempts.

On defense, Miami has been particularly dialed in, allowing 272.3 total yards and 13.2 points per game in its last six outings. The Dolphins are also keeping opponents under 190 passing yards per game in the last six contests, with top-10 marks in sacks (37), passer rating allowed (85.4), passing touchdowns allowed (20) and completion rate allowed (60.7 percent) for the full season. The Dolphins have created 21 turnovers, a top-10 figure, and opponents are scoring touchdowns on only 51 percent of trips to the red zone, the seventh-lowest figure in the NFL in 2021.

Why the Saints can cover

New Orleans has a strong overall formula, and its defense is at the forefront. The Saints are allowing only 20.4 points per game in 2021, capped by a shutout performance last week against the reigning Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. New Orleans is above-average in total defense and passing defense from a yardage perspective, with the Saints allowing opponents to complete only 61.7 percent of passes with 33 sacks on the season. New Orleans ranks in the top five in passer rating allowed (82.5), touchdown passes allowed (18) and interceptions (15). 

Miami struggles mightily to produce an effective rushing attack, and New Orleans is giving up only 96.6 yards per game on the ground. Opponents have only 10 rushing touchdowns against the Saints, and New Orleans is allowing only 3.8 yards per carry. In addition to tremendous overall metrics, the Saints are stellar in preventing touchdowns in short areas, leading the NFL in red zone defense by giving up a touchdown on only 43.6 percent of opportunities.

How to make Dolphins vs. Saints picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting 34 points scored. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s Saints vs. Dolphins pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Saints vs. Dolphins on Monday Night Football And which side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Saints vs. Dolphins spread you need to jump on, all from the model that’s 133-96 on NFL picks, and find out.