English Premier League odds, September 17 picks: Expert reveals best bets for Newcastle vs. Leeds

Leeds United will try to continue its streak against Newcastle United on Friday when the teams meet in an English Premier League match at St. James’ Park. The Whites won both meetings last season by a combined score of 7-3, but both teams are off to rough starts to the 2021-22 English Premier League campaign. Leeds (0-2-2) is 17th in the EPL table, while Newcastle (0-1-3) sits 19th, and they have allowed a combined 23 goals in their eight matches. That should make for an entertaining clash in a series where each team has won 39 times and 18 meetings have been played to a draw.    

Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET in Newcastle, England. Caesars Sportsbook lists Leeds as the +128 favorite (risk $100 to win $128) in its latest Newcastle vs. Leeds odds, with Newcastle the +205 underdog and a draw priced at +250. The over-under for total goals scored is set at 2.5. Before making any Leeds vs. Newcastle picks or English Premier League predictions, you have to see what European soccer insider Martin Green has to say. 

After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Since then, his European soccer picks have been stunningly accurate. Green has generated more than $36,000 for $100 bettors since the 2017-18 season, and he has his finger on the pulse of the game all over the globe.

Now, Green has taken a close look at the Newcastle vs. Leeds matchup and revealed his Premier League expert picks. You can head to SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the EPL odds and betting trends for Leeds vs. Newcastle: 

• Newcastle vs. Leeds spread: Leeds -0.5 (+115)
• Newcastle vs. Leeds over-under: 2.5 goals
• Newcastle vs. Leeds money line: Newcastle +205, Leeds +128, Draw +250
• Newcastle: Joe Willock had eight goals in 14 matches last season.
• Leeds: Patrick Bamford had 56 goals over the past four seasons.

Why you should back Leeds

Leeds dominated possession in both matchups last season, holding the ball for 69 percent of the 5-2 victory at Elland Road and 58 percent in a 2-1 win in Newcastle. The Whites had 25 shots (10 on target) in the home leg and are typically dangerous in attack, though they have just four goals so far. Leeds hasn’t gone without a victory in its first five league games in a top-flight campaign since 1946-47 and faces a Newcastle team that has allowed a league-high 12 goals.     

Leeds scored 62 goals last season, their first back in the top flight after 16 years in the Championship. They finished a respectable ninth in the table, a point behind Arsenal and two back of Tottenham. Patrick Bamford scored 17 of those goals, tied for fourth in the EPL, and is one of the four goal-scorers this season. Jack Harrison scored in both games against the Magpies last year, and Raphinha, Rodrigo and Daniel James also can make defenses nervous. 

Why you should back Newcastle 

The Magpies have scored in 14 of the past 15 league meetings and had lost one of the previous 11 matchups (7-3-1) before being swept last season. They have been beset by injuries, but Allan Saint-Maximin is capable up top, and midfielders Migel Almiron and Joe Willock should be able to break down a depleted Leeds defense. Leeds is without three key defenders, with Pascal Struijk serving a red-card suspension and Diego Llorente and Robin Koch injured.

Newcastle will be desperate to get points with winnable games against Leeds and Watford on the slate. The Whites are vulnerable on the counter-attack, and the Magpies exploited that in their matchup at St. James’ Park last year. They outshot Leeds 22-9 (5-2 on target), and Almiron equalized in the 57th minute before Harrison’s winner four minutes later. The Magpies were tied 1-1 with Man United after 60 minutes last week before a late barrage in the 4-1 loss.         

How to make Leeds vs. Newcastle picks

Green has taken a close look at Friday’s matchup. He’s going over on the goal total, and he’s also locked in a pair of other best bets, including one on the side. He’s only sharing his expert EPL picks and analysis at SportsLine.

So who wins Newcastle vs. Leeds? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see the best bets, all from the European soccer expert who has generated more than $36,000 for $100 bettors over the past four seasons, and find out.