Lions vs. 49ers prediction, odds, spread, time, line: 2024 NFC Championship Game picks from model on 38-21 run

The Detroit Lions have not won a road playoff game since 1957 and Dan Campbell’s team will try to change that on Sunday. The Lions will visit Levi’s Stadium to take on the San Francisco 49ers in the 2024 NFC Championship Game. Detroit was 12-5 during the regular season, winning the NFC North, and reached the NFC Championship Game as a result of wins over the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It is the third all-time playoff meeting between the Lions and 49ers, with San Francisco hosting the matchup as the No. 1 seed and coming off a narrow win over the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional Round.

Kickoff is at 6:30 p.m. ET in Santa Clara. The 49ers are 7.5-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 51.5 in the latest Lions vs. 49ers odds. Before you make any Lions vs. 49ers picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the conference championship round of the 2024 NFL playoffs on an incredible 184-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 38-21 roll on top-rated picks since Week 7 of last season and nailed seven straight top-rated picks entering the 2024 NFL playoffs. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Lions vs. 49ers and just locked in its picks and NFL playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Lions vs. 49ers:

• Lions vs. 49ers spread: 49ers -7.5
• Lions vs. 49ers over/under: 51.5 points 
• Lions vs. 49ers money line: 49ers -353, Lions +278
• DET: Lions are 7-2 against the spread in road games 
• SF: 49ers are 3-6 against the spread in home games
• Lions vs. 49ers picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Lions vs. 49ers live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why the Lions can cover

Star defensive end Aidan Hutchinson generated 11.5 sacks during the regular season, most by a Lions player since 2017. In two playoff games, Hutchinson has three sacks, and he has eight in his last four games overall. Hutchinson also impacts the game even when he isn’t tackling the quarterback, including the NFL’s best mark in pressures (118) this season. He has a staggering 29% pressure rate in two playoff games and 11 consecutive games with at least five pressures.

The Lions are elite against the run. Detroit will need to focus on taking away 49ers All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey, and the Lions ranked in the top three of the NFL in rushing yards allowed (88.8 per game) and yards per carry allowed (3.7) during the regular season. The Lions were also above-average in both interceptions (16) and third down efficiency allowed (37.1%) this season, and Detroit was in the top eight of the NFL in natural pressure rate (35.2%) against opposing quarterbacks. See which team to pick here.

Why the 49ers can cover

San Francisco ranked near the top of the NFL in several offensive categories this season, including yards per play (6.6), yards per drive (37.8), points per drive (2.70), and red zone efficiency (67.2%). 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy set an NFL record in averaging 9.6 yards per pass attempt and led the league in QBR, passer rating, and touchdown rate. All told, the 49ers averaged almost 29 points per game while scoring on more than 45% of offensive possessions. Detroit yielded 425 total yards and 7.7 yards per play to the Rams in the Wild Card Round before giving up 408 yards and 6.8 yards per play to the Buccaneers last week.

In the regular season, opponents scored more than 23 points per game and two points per drive against the Lions, who ranked No. 27 or worse in red zone efficiency allowed (66.0%), passing touchdowns allowed (28), passing yards allowed (247.4 per game), and yards allowed per pass attempt (7.8). The Lions were also solidly below-average in sacks (41) and takeaways (23) during the regular season. See which team to pick here.

How to make Lions vs. 49ers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under the point total, with no pass-catcher projected to generate more than 85 receiving yards. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Lions vs. 49ers in the 2024 NFC Championship Game, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Lions vs. 49ers spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model that is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, and find out.