Milan still looking to find themselves after Champions League loss; Big weekend Bundesliga showdown looms

Happy Friday! Another exciting weekend of action across Europe awaits, with opportunities for some UEFA Champions League teams to reset – or course correct – ahead of a consequential week. I’m Pardeep Cattry with your end-of-week update.

📺 Footy fix

All times U.S./Eastern

Friday, Feb. 14
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EPL: Brighton vs. Chelsea, 3 p.m. ➡️ USA Network

Saturday, Feb. 15
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EPL: Manchester City vs. Newcastle, 10 a.m. ➡️ Peacock
🇪🇸 La Liga: Osasuna vs. Real Madrid, 10:15 a.m. ➡️ ESPN+
🇩🇪 Bundesliga: Leverkusen vs. Bayern, 12:30 p.m. ➡️ ESPN+
🇮🇹 Serie A: AC Milan vs. Hellas Verona, 2:45 p.m. ➡️ Paramount+

Sunday, Feb. 16
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 WSL: Arsenal vs. Tottenham, 7:45 a.m. ➡️ ESPN2
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EPL: Tottenham vs. Manchester United, 11:30 a.m. ➡️ Peacock
🇮🇹 Serie A: Juventus vs. Inter, 2:45 p.m. ➡️ Paramount+, CBS Sports Golazo Network

⚽ The Forward Line

🇪🇺 One leg down, one to go

The first leg of the UEFA Champions League’s knockout phase playoffs came and went this week, and while Tuesday’s action was more jam-packed, Wednesday’s results were all about tight margins. There were winners in all four games on Wednesday, but each one carries a one goal lead heading into next week’s second legs, meaning there’s much to play for when the second leg of those ties take place on Tuesday.

For those who did not make the most of their first leg ties, it’s time to troubleshoot with domestic matches over the weekend. That’s especially true for AC Milan, who once felt they were riding high with new manager Sergio Conceicao and went with a star-studded attack featuring Christian Pulisic, Rafael Leao and new signings Santiago Gimenez and Joao Felix in the starting lineup at Feyenoord on Wednesday. Instead of a dominating offensive performance, they left Rotterdam with a 1-0 loss after an uninspiring performance in attack.

Milan mustered just 0.59 expected goals from 12 shots, slightly better than an equally unimpressive Feyenoord attack, and a favorable game on Saturday against Serie A’s 15th best team, Hellas Verona, offers a decent chance to fix their problems. Those issues include poor individual outings from Pulisic and Gimenez, who did not live up to the billing on Wednesday, according to Francesco Porzio.

• Porzio: “The American international had only 36 passes in his opening 60 minutes (only Gimenez had fewer out of the starters) and zero shots overall, something that we have only seen three times this season in the Serie A games against AC Monza and Como and in the Champions League’s match against Girona. Pulisic is a vital player for the team, but the game against Feyenoord showed that the new tactical approach with the big four is not paying off so far.”

Finding the right balance in attack will be key for Milan to advance in the Champions League, and the opportunity is there – they will be at home against a Feyenoord team that may not have found a way to replace Gimenez yet. Saturday’s game at Hellas Verona, though, could offer a real chance to create a winning strategy with their European campaign on the line.

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🇩🇪 Title clash in Germany

One of the most high-stakes games of the weekend will take place in Germany, where reigning Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen will host league leaders Bayern Munich, who boast an eight point lead heading into Saturday’s game and will stay in first place regardless of the result.

It is still too early to call the title race in Germany, but in terms of the simple objective of winning a trophy this season, but Bayern are doing what they need in order to make their trophyless campaign a year ago – their first in more than a decade – old news. That said, Vincent Kompany’s side head to Leverkusen with loads of question marks. Harry Kane is still delivering at a high rate with 21 goals this season across all competitions, while Jamal Musiala and Michael Olise have done well with 15 and 11 goals, respectively. Their defense needs a lot of work, though, as Wednesday’s 2-1 win at Celtic in the UEFA Champions League demonstrated.

Bayern were the heavy favorites and came out with a win, but they are a defensively vulnerable team. Celtic outdid Bayern in terms of expected goals by a margin of 1.39 to 0.7, in large part because the six-time Champions League winners were unable to truly dominate and keep the opposition at bay. It is a strategy they may be able to get away with on most days in the Bundesliga, but as Micah Richards described it, their European encounter raised questions about their ability to win titles in a truly convincing manner.

• Richards: “For the quality of the players that they have, they don’t look like a team. The only reason I give them a chance is because of the quality they have up top, but defensively … they’re all over the place. They’re actually all over the place. They need to sort that out.”

Despite the eight point gap in the table, Leverkusen have all the tools they need to trouble Bayern’s defense. They are the second-best attacking team in the Bundesliga with 49 goals, 14 coming from Patrik Schick alone, while Florian Wirtz leads the league’s assist charts with nine. This game may not cost Bayern the title when all is said and done, but if this season is designed to offer a progress report on where the team ranks amongst Europe’s elites, Saturday’s game could offer a real answer to that question.

🔗  Top Stories

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💰  The Back Line

💵 Best bets

• Premier League: Manchester City vs. Newcastle United, Saturday, 10 a.m.
  💰 THE PICK: Alexander Isak to score (+135): Manchester City’s focus will be split with the second leg in Champions League against Real Madrid on the horizon but even if it wasn’t, this is a team that can’t defend against one of the best strikers in the Premier League. If Mohamed Salah didn’t exist, Isak would be among the top contenders for the Premier League Golden Boot and with Newcastle United needing a result to push for a European spot of their own, expect him to get plenty of chances to find the back of the net. –Chuck Booth
• Serie A: Juventus vs. Inter, Sunday, 2:45 p.m.
  💰 THE PICK: Federico Dimarco to have one shot on target (+140): Inter lives and dies by their wing back play and with Juventus having no shortage of center backs, Lautaro Martinez could have a tough time in the middle. But with a player like Dimarco out wide that isn’t afraid to shoot, getting a shot on target at plus odds despite it being a defender is a bet worth taking. –Chuck Booth

For more picks, predictions, expert tips and the latest betting news, don’t miss out on CBSSports.com’s betting home page.   

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