Murray State-San Francisco will be the best NCAA Tournament game tonight, plus other best bets for Thursday

Thank you for opening this email. To be honest, if I were in your shoes, I wouldn’t have. Not because I wouldn’t want to when I saw it, but because the last thing I intend to do today is check my email. I’m not answering texts or phone calls (though, to be fair, I never answer phone calls, just text me, you psychopath).

As you read this, I am watching the NCAA Tournament. You should be watching it too. Seriously, even if you’re at work, just watch it on your computer or phone or something. Nobody expects you to get any work done anyway, and you know how you haven’t seen your boss in like two hours? That’s because they’re somewhere watching the NCAA Tournament right now too.

So, quickly, read these stories, read the picks I’ve got for you tonight, and then for the love of all that’s great in this world, go watch the tournament.

• Deshaun Watson’s list of potential trade destinations is down to two teams.
• The Warriors will be without Steph Curry for a while.
• Zack Greinke is back in a familiar uniform.
• Get all your live tournament updates here.

OK, I’ve got four picks for tonight’s tournament games. Let’s learn all about them together.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

🏀 No. 7 Murray State vs. No. 10 San Francisco, 9:40 p.m. | TV: CBS

• Key Trend: Murray State is 1-4 ATS in its last five as a favorite
• The Pick: San Francisco +2 (-110)

This is the best game of the day. No, it does not feature two of the most storied programs — though NBA legends Bill Russell and K.C. Jones played together at San Francisco — but this is the game you want to watch unless your favorite team is playing at the same time, and even then, maybe you should consider this one. It’s also my favorite bet of the night because the wrong team is favored!

San Francisco is not markedly better than Murray State. But I would have the Dons -2 over the Racers, and we’re getting this the other way around. The reason San Francisco is seeded No. 10 is that it has a couple of head-scratching losses on its resume. It lost to Grand Canyon in mid-December and then dropped a game to Portland in February, but that Portland loss was the second straight game the teams met in a weird scheduling quirk. 

Murray State has a bad loss against East Tennessee State, but that’s one of only two Murray State losses this season. The other was to Auburn. Since then, the Racers have won 20 straight. However, only two of those 20 straight wins came against teams ranked in the top 100 by KenPom, and both were against No. 86 Belmont. According to KenPom, Murray State has played the 239th most difficult schedule in the country. San Francisco’s schedule ranks 79th. So what I’m trying to tell you here is that San Francisco is the best team Murray State will have seen all season.

The final point I’ll make here is that San Francisco is the deeper team as well. The Dons have nine players who play at least 20% of their games. Murray State goes seven deep, so if the Racers get into foul trouble, things could unravel for them. I’m taking the Dons and the points, but I’d strongly consider a money line play.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: I can honestly say that I have never seen the SportsLine Projection Model love a bet as much as it loves this one.

💰 More NCAA Tournament Picks

No. 5 UConn vs. No. 12 New Mexico State, 6:50 p.m. | TV: TNT

The Pick: Under 132 (-110) — This will serve as a de facto home game for UConn as it’s being played in Buffalo, which last I checked is much closer to Connecticut than the state of New Mexico. While New Mexico State has a capable scorer who can get hot and dominate a game in Teddy Allen, he’s more of a volume shooter than an efficient scorer. He’s shooting only 31.7% from three and relies on getting to the free-throw line.

That could be a problem for a UConn defense that gets a little foulsy at times, but the Huskies are capable enough defensively to take Allen out of the game and force the rest of the Aggies to beat them. If they’re successful, I don’t see how the Aggies score consistently.

I lean toward the Huskies on the spread, but I think the better value is on the under, as it’s a few points too high by my estimation. If the Huskies do stifle the NMSU offense as I expect them to, we don’t have to worry about a dry offensive spell costing us the cover. In fact, we should root for it.

Key Trend: The under is 6-2 in UConn’s last eight as a favorite.

No. 5 St. Mary’s vs. No. 12 Indiana, 7:20 p.m. | TV: TBS

The Pick: Indiana +2.5 (-110) — Indiana, I’m giving in. I’ve accepted the fact that you can make every team in the country look terrible and muck things up enough that no team on the planet is capable of pulling away from you for any length of time. One of Indiana’s biggest problems defensively in the Big Ten — and Indiana was the most efficient defense in the conference — was that it often got in foul trouble and gave teams too many free throw attempts. That isn’t likely to be the case tonight, as St. Mary’s is not a team that gets to the line. The Gaels free throw rate of 23.2% ranks 341st in the country.

They slow things down, get into their half-court offense and pass the ball around until they find an open shot. There’s not a lot of penetration to draw fouls. That plays into the hands of an Indiana team that wants to slow things down and get into a half-court battle. St. Mary’s is fantastic on the defensive end itself, so I think it wins this game more often than not, but neither of these teams will win by much. Expect a slow, ugly game in which every point will be at a premium.

Key Trend: Indiana is 6-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games as an underdog.

No. 8 San Diego State vs. No. 9 Creighton, 7:27 p.m. | TV: truTV

The Pick: Creighton +2.5 (-110) — If we could bet on the ugliest game of the day, this would be the play. There were many times this season when I would bet the under in a San Diego State game but refused to watch because I knew the game would be painful to watch. I’d simply place the bet, go to bed, and see if I won in the morning. It won far more often than not. Unfortunately, the total for this one is too low to test because Creighton is awful offensively itself.

Since the total is too low, I’m going to go with the underdog because I’m not sure we can trust either of these offenses to pull away from the other. San Diego State slows games down to a snail’s pace and then misses a shot. Creighton moves a little quicker, but it misses just as many shots. Using KenPom’s offensive efficiency numbers, the Aztecs rank 160th and Creighton is 127th. Of the 68 teams who made the tournament, those numbers rank 63rd and 58th, respectively. What got these two here is defense, and in what should be a close game, Creighton’s size advantage and (slightly) better free-throw shooting could make all the difference.

Key Trend: Creighton is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: We know the Projection Model loves one side of the spread between Murray State and San Francisco, but that’s not the only play it’s enamored with. It loves the spread in UConn/New Mexico State nearly as much.