NBA picks, best bets: Expect Golden State to punch its ticket to the NBA Finals with Game 5 win

With the 2021-22 NBA regular season now in the books, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals. All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks

Prior to Game 4, I wrote about Golden State’s underwhelming history of completing sweeps. Fortunately for the Warriors, they are far better in Game 5 settings. They have a 12-4 record in Game 5’s under Steve Kerr, and given their history with 3-1 leads, they’ll likely be anxious to finish Dallas off at home in Game 5 rather than give them a chance to linger. The shots finally started to fall for Dallas in Game 4, but with the venue shifting back to San Francisco for Game 5, the Warriors should be able to rely on their role players more than the Mavericks can. Dallas did well to stave off the sweep, but expect the Warriors to reach the Finals on Thursday. The pick: Warriors -7

I’ve picked the over the past several games and it paid off for me in Game 4 with a total of 228 points. The logic remains the same. Dallas has really struggled to prevent Golden State’s motion offense from generating easy shots. The Mavericks, aside from Game 4, have had very bad shooting luck that is unlikely to fully sustain throughout the series. The pick: Over 216.5

Game 6 Klay Thompson is Golden State’s most well-known playoff phenomenon, but clincher Stephen Curry deserves a bit of shine too. Curry has averaged 33.8 points per game in Golden State’s 18 series-clinching victories during the Kerr era. If you expect the Warriors to finish this thing off on Thursday, you should expect Curry to be the biggest reason why. When he smells blood, he’s lethal. The pick: Curry over 27.5 points