NFL player props, odds, expert picks for Week 18, 2021-22: Tom Brady goes under 291.5 passing yards for Bucs

The longest regular season in NFL history is at its end, and NFL Week 18 brings one last chance to play a full slate of NFL prop bets. The final week means positioning for the playoffs and a handful of teams clawing for the final spots. There are 14 Sunday games on the Week 18 NFL schedule, and the AFC playoffs won’t be settled until the Chargers vs. Raiders matchup is decided on Sunday Night Football (8:20 pm. ET). The winner is definitely in, and the Colts also can be certain of a spot with a win at Jacksonville at 1 p.m. ET. But will the Jaguars try to play spoiler against their AFC South foe and open up the Wild-Card race? Or will they play it safe to lock up the top pick in the 2022 NFL Draft?

The Colts will likely count heavily on NFL rushing leader Jonathan Taylor to seal their playoff spot. Caesars Sportsbook lists the over-under on Taylor’s rushing yards at 114.5 (-115) in its latest NFL Week 18 props odds. There are many other props on this game, and dozens on every Week 18 NFL matchup. Before locking in any 2021-22 Week 18 NFL prop bets, you need to check out the top NFL picks and predictions from NFL props expert Alex Selesnick.

Over the past two seasons, Selesnick (aka PropStarz) is up more than 116 units on NFL props and futures plays. For a $100 bettor, that’s a well over $11,000 return. PropStarz specializes in NFL and NBA prop betting, where he implements a combination of research, statistical analysis and mathematical modeling. His background playing competitive poker, Scrabble and backgammon helped form the foundation of his sports betting approach.

Through 17 weeks, PropStarz is an impressive 50-35 on his picks for SportsLine, and last week he nailed Cardinals QB Kyler Murray to go over 30.5 rushing yards (-110) against Dallas. The expert typically shies away from QB rushing props, but this number was too enticing to pass up.

“This is a friendly number,” PropStarz told SportsLine, “one that Murray has eclipsed in 25 of 44 career games.” The expert added that the strength of the Dallas pass defense and its quality pass rushers would force Murray to make plays with his feet.

The third-year Cardinals starter rushed nine times for 44 yards, five over his career average, as Arizona upset the Cowboys 25-22 and cashed the expert’s bet.   

Now, after sifting through the hundreds of available Week 18 NFL prop bets, PropStarz has found five more picks he loves. He’s only sharing his Week 18 NFL prop picks at SportsLine. 

Top 2021-22 Week 18 NFL prop picks

One prop bet that PropStarz loves for NFL Week 18: Buccaneers QB Tom Brady goes under 291.5 passing yards (-125) against the Panthers. Brady threw for 232 yards against Carolina in a 32-6 victory two weeks ago, and he is dealing with some issues in his receiving corps. Elite option Chris Godwin (ACL) is out for the season and Antonio Brown was cut after last week’s meltdown in New York, leaving Mike Evans as the big threat. But the Bucs likely would count on the run anyway.

Carolina’s defense ranks second against the pass, allowing 184 yards per game, while it is 20th against the run, giving up almost 116 yards per contest. Ke’Shawn Vaughn went 55 yards for his first NFL rushing TD in the Week 16 meeting as he and Ronald Jones combined for 159 yards on the ground. Brady is the NFL’s passing leader at 4,990 yards, so he’ll make some throws, but he isn’t likely to have a monster day.  

How to make 2021-22 NFL Week 18 prop bet picks

PropStarz has locked in four other Week 18 NFL prop picks, including a star receiver who will have a bounce-back game that you’ll want to jump on right away.  You can get all his Week 18 NFL prop bet picks over at SportsLine.

What are the five best Week 18 NFL prop picks you can make? And which receiver prop do you need to jump on now? Visit SportsLine now to see the best Week 18 NFL prop bets, all from the expert up more than 116 units the past two years, and find out.