NFL Week 16 best bets: Confident Colts keep Cardinals reeling, Packers too much for Browns

Okay, we are definitely on a legit heater. The good news is we are 49-25 ATS the last five weeks. We have not been below .500 since Week 10 and went off last week going 12- 4 against the spread … but the problem is we somehow won just one of our four best bets. We weren’t that far off on most of them and it took a turnover by the Titans to blow that game to the Steelers, but it happened.

Which ain’t great for us.

Just 20-16 with our best bets for the season. We definitely aspire to do much better than that. This week I find myself attracted to the Christmas Day games in particular and we are also being very mindful of the ongoing COVID situations which are clearly playing a significant role in these games and their outcomes.

There’s no way to account for it on a day-to-day basis and overall it is the single biggest factor in my estimation determining many of these games at this point. If there was a veil ability as to which teams had the highest number of players who had received the booster shot in my estimation that would be the most significant piece of data anyone looking to gamble could get their hands on.

With that in mind, here is what stands out to me in Week 16.

Indianapolis Colts +1 at Arizona Cardinals

The Colts are a bully. They beat you up at the point of attack on both sides of the ball and lately the Cardinals look like a team that is questioning its own identity and questioning its own record. Arizona has just three wins in its last seven games and Kyler Murray is looking confused and confounded by the scope of this offense. The Cardinal splits without DeAndre Hopkins are horrible and the defense continues to show major cracks without J.J. Watt.

I know Arizona’s at home but I like the Colts’ ability to run the ball down their throat and they proved last week they can beat a quality opponent with Carson Wentz doing next to nothing. The Colts have an identity and know who they are while I find myself looking at the Cardinals lately and thinking they are second-guessing how good they are and what they do best. These seem to be two teams going in different directions.

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Green Bay Packers -7 vs. Cleveland Browns

The Browns are hopeful of having Baker Mayfield back but even if he is, what does that mean? He’s been beat up all year, he’s had a rough season and he hasn’t practiced in several weeks. And he’s coming back to a team that is dealing with health issues on both sides of the ball and frankly hasn’t inspired much in terms of looking like a true contender for most of the season. The offense is very limited at this point and I don’t see much of a downfield thrust.

Having Myles Garrett less than 100% is bad news for the Browns. Aaron Rodgers is chasing home-field advantage and he will find a way put up 35 points or more in this game. The Browns aren’t going to be able to run their way back from a deficit and I could see this game getting way out of hand in the second half. Green Bay’s defense will be suffocating. This game looks like a mismatch to me.

Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are running out of NFL players on their roster. Between injuries and COVID they have been decimated, and yes I know they found a way to keep many of these games close but I don’t believe they will be able to stay within a field goal of the Bengals. The Bengals play the second-most three wide receiver sets in the NFL and the Ravens don’t have any of their Week 1 starters guaranteed to play in their secondary in this game. They’re also very compromised on the edge and their offensive line is not good and is particularly horrible on the road. The Bengals had a season-high 21 pressures at Baltimore in Week 7, and they have too much for this line to handle. 

Ja’Marr Chase went for 201 in the first meeting and Joe Burrow passed for 416 yards and that’s when the Ravens did have most of their secondary intact. It feels to me like the bottom is falling out on this Ravens team and this is not a good matchup for them as presently constructed.