NFL Week 9 overreactions, reality checks: Eagles NFC East champs? Dolphins, Cowboys not elite?

Week 9 of the NFL had four massive matchups and four different time slots, making it the most anticipated week as we reach the halfway point of the year. The Kansas City Chiefs took care of the Miami Dolphins in Germany while the Baltimore Ravens pounded the Seattle Seahawks in another showdown of the league’s top teams. 

The Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys battled for the NFC East in a thrilling late-afternoon showdown, with the Eagles coming out on top in a game that went down to the final play. With three great matchups, there are plenty of overreactions from Week 9 from the afternoon slate. 

Which ones are overreactions and which ones are reality? 

The Dolphins offense isn’t elite until it beats a good team

Overreaction or reality: Reality

The Dolphins are 0-3 against teams over .500, but there’s more to their failures than just not being able to beat good teams. Their offense has taken a severe step backward when it plays teams over .500. In the three games the Dolphins faced teams with winning records, the offense averaged just 17 points per game and didn’t score over 20 points in any game. It averaged only 309.7 yards per game against those teams. 

Miami entered Week 9 with the No. 1 offense in points and yards per game, averaging 33.9 points and 453.2 yards. The Dolphins haven’t come close to any of those numbers against teams with winning records, including just 14 points and 292 yards in Sunday’s loss to the Chiefs. 

Perhaps this is what the Dolphins offense is. It just doesn’t show up against good teams. 

Chiefs have the best defense in the AFC

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

The Chiefs defense is very good, evidenced by the 14 points and 292 yards the unit held the Dolphins to in Sunday’s 21-14 victory in Frankfurt, Germany. Kansas City is fourth in the NFL in yards allowed (287.8), second in passing yards (176.1), and second in points per game allowed (16.1). The defense is the biggest catalyst toward Kansas City’s 7-2 start and why the Chiefs could go back to the Super Bowl again. 

Thanks to the Ravens, the Chiefs defense isn’t the best in the AFC. Baltimore is allowing the fewest points per game (15.1) and the second fewest yards (276.5). The Ravens also are first in goal-to-go situations (40%) and second in red zone conversion rate (35%). 

Kansas City deserves to be in the conversation, but Baltimore is better. 

Ravens are the best team in the AFC

Overreaction or reality: Reality

The Ravens certainly flex their muscle against the good teams this season, beating those over .500 teams in a big way. Baltimore blew past Seattle in a 37-3 beat down, rushing for 298 yards and gaining 515 yards of offense while only allowing 151. This was a dominant effort against a Seattle defense that allowed only 15.7 points and  232.7 yards over the last three games. 

Baltimore certainly has a reputation of beating good teams this year, becoming the fifth team since the 1970 merger with multiple 30-point wins in a season vs. teams entering three-plus games above .500. They are the third team since 1970 to win three straight games by 24-plus points against teams entering with a winning record — two of those victories have come within the last three weeks. 

Baltimore has the same record as Kansas City, but the Ravens are pummeling the good teams on their schedule. The Ravens play a brutal schedule this year, but they’ve aced every test against a good team. 

Through nine weeks, Baltimore is the best team in the AFC. 

Seahawks have a low ceiling with Geno Smith

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

The Seahawks are a good team that had a bad day, yet this seems to be a trending pattern in the Geno Smith era against good teams. Smith wasn’t good on this particular day, finishing 13 of 28 for 157 yards with no touchdowns and an interception (49.3 rating). 

Smith does not have poor numbers against teams with winning records. The Seahawks are 4-3 under Smith as he has thrown 10 touchdowns to five interceptions (including Sunday’s performance). Smith is not having the best of years either with nine touchdowns to seven interceptions and an 86.4 passer rating (20th in NFL).

Perhaps the best version of the Seahawks are the team that made the playoffs in the first round and bowed out, but this is a team that is tied for first in the NFC West and has a shot at the division title. Unfair to have a low ceiling for the Seahawks after a bad day. 

Eagles will win the NFC East

Overreaction or reality: Reality

The winner of the first Eagles-Cowboys game over the last few years typically has control of the NFC East. The Cowboys beat the Eagles in 2021 en route to the division title while the Eagles did the same in 2022. Philadelphia and Dallas do meet again in Week 14, but Sunday’s win over the Cowboys was huge for the Eagles.

Despite how the ending went, the Eagles did hold on and get the win. Philadelphia is 2.5 games up on Dallas with eight games to play and the head-to-head tiebreaker in hand. The Cowboys do have a very light schedule coming up (Giants, Panthers, Commanders, Seahawks) while the Eagles have a much toucher stretch (Chiefs, Bills, 49ers) before the pair meet again — but Dallas has to make up a lot of ground to even catch Philadelphia. 

The Week 14 game will be meaningful, but Dallas needed to win Sunday to have a shot at the division. Unless the Cowboys go 4-0 over the next four, that doesn’t appear to be an option. 

Mike McCarthy is costing the Cowboys a Super Bowl

Overreaction or reality: Reality

The Cowboys are looking up at the 49ers and Eagles, two teams they are 0-2 against in the first half of the season. That doesn’t bode well for being a Super Bowl contender does it? That falls on McCarthy.

Dallas played well enough to win Sunday, but situational football eluded them when the Cowboys had multiple chances to steal a win from an Eagles team that tried to lose that game. The Cowboys turned the ball over on downs twice in the second half and had first-and-goal from the Eagles’ 6-yard line with 27 seconds left in a 28-23 game, yet lost yards due to two penalties and a sack. That set Dallas up for an impossible third-and-26 conversion from the Eagles’ 27 with five seconds left and no timeouts. The Cowboys didn’t score and lost the game.

This team is not a good situational football team. That starts with McCarthy, who was lethargic with time management throughout the game and the situation when Dallas was trailing. The Cowboys won’t be a Super Bowl team because of McCarthy, as the NFC East was in their hands.

In typical Cowboys fashion, they failed to get the job done in a big moment. 

Josh Dobbs will take Vikings to playoffs

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Incredible what Dobbs was able to pull off for Minnesota after Sunday’s win. He didn’t take a single snap with the offense in practice all week and was teaching them his cadence on the sidelines as he entered the game for Jaren Hall in the second quarter.

All Dobbs did was throw the game-winning touchdown pass to Brandon Powell with 22 seconds left in a thrilling 31-28 victory, capping a day which he went 20 of 30 for 158 yards with two touchdown passes, one rushing score and two fumbles (101.8 rating). Dobbs was traded to the Vikings five days ago and was benched by the Cardinals last week. 

The Vikings are 5-4 and in control of their playoff destiny, having a quarterback that multiple teams have relied upon to hold the fort down over the last two years. With a competent offense, Minnesota may be getting the best out of Dobbs en route to a surprising playoff berth. 

Wait until Dobbs actually knows his players.