Packers at Bears picks: Point spread, total, player props, trends for Aaron Rodgers vs. Justin Fields

We have ourselves and NFC North matchup in store for us on Sunday when Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers roll into Solider Field to take on the Chicago Bears in Week 6. This will be the first time that the Packers will see rookie quarterback Justin Fields under center and the 2021 first-rounder is looking to climb atop the division with a win on Sunday. 

In this space, we’re going to dive into the different betting angles that this game has to offer. Along with the spread and total, we’ll also take a look at a number of player props and hand in our picks for how we see this primetime matchup unfolding. 

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

How to watch

Date: Sunday, Oct. 17 | Time: 1 p.m. ET

Location: Soldier Field (Chicago)

TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)

Follow: CBS Sports App

Odds: Packers -6, O/U 44

Line movement

This number originally opened at Packers -4.5, but bettors were quick to jump on that number this week and drive it all the way to Packers -6 heading into the weekend. 

The pick: Packers -6. The Bears have yet to really let Justin Fields loose and held him to just 20 pass attempts last week against the Raiders. That won’t be enough to outduel Aaron Rodgers and this Packers offense, even if Chicago’s defense continues to play well. Historically, the Green Bay quarterback has also done quite well against the Bears, owning a 20-5 record against the division rival. I’m just not sure Fields is at the level where he’ll be able to match Rodgers throw-for-throw, which makes me love taking this at fewer than seven points. 

Key trend: Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. 

Over/Under total

The total has dipped pretty consistently as the week has progressed. After opening at 46, this number has ticked down all the way to 44 on Wednesday and has held at the point since. 

The pick: Under 44. I don’t have a ton of faith that this Bears offense can get us the point production we’ll need to go over in this game. Fields has just one passing touchdown in his three starts this season and is averaging 129.3 passing yards per game over that stretch. Chicago may also be forced to roll with rookie running back Khalil Herbert in the backfield, which provides even more of an unknown with this offense. Unless the Packers offense explodes to push us over, I expect this be a a low-scoring game. 

Key trend: Under is 4-0 in Bears’ last four games. 

Player props to consider

Aaron Rodgers passing touchdowns: Over 1.5 (-190). Rodger has thrown for multiple touchdowns in four straight games this season and is averaging over two passing touchdowns per game in his career against the Bears. 

Aaron Jones total rushing yards: Over 57.5 (-115). While A.J. Dillon is carving out a nice role for himself in this backfield, Jones is still the top dog. He’s gone over this total three times this season, including last week against the Bengals. The Bears are also allowing 103.8 yards per game on the ground this year. 

Justin Fields total rushing yards: Over 16.5 (-120). With the backfield in disarray, Matt Nagy could look to establish a running game with Fields a bit more than he has the past couple of week, which opens the door for this prop to tip over.