Patriots vs. Lions prediction, odds, line, spread: 2022 NFL picks, Week 5 best bets from proven computer model

The New England Patriots (1-3) will host the Detroit Lions (1-3) at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at Gillette Stadium. The Lions are coming off a 48-45 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, while the Patriots are looking to rebound from a 27-24 overtime loss to the Green Bay Packers. Quarterbacks Mac Jones remains questionable for New England, while wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown remains questionable and running back D’Andre Swift is expected to miss his second straight game for Detroit. The Patriots have won four of the past five meetings with the Lions.

New England is a 3-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Lions odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over/under is set at 45.5. Before making any Lions vs. Patriots picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from the model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 140-105 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Patriots vs. Lions and just locked in its picks and NFL Week 5 predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Patriots vs. Lions:

• Patriots vs. Lions spread: Patriots -3
• Patriots vs. Lions over/under: 45.5 points
• Patriots vs. Lions picks: See picks here

What you need to know about the Patriots

The Patriots got to overtime against the Green Bay Packers this past Sunday but fell short 27-24. QB Bailey Zappe was forced into action after Brian Hoyer, who was filling in for Jones, suffered a head injury. Jones is still listed as questionable, but did participate in practice this week on a limited basis. Hoyer has been placed in Injured Reserve.

The New England defense faces a tough test in a Lions offense that ranks first in the NFL in total yards and points scored per game. On the other side of the ball, Detroit ranks dead last in the league in total yards and points allowed per game. If New England can limit or slow down Detroit’s offensive attack, there should be plenty of opportunity for them to rack up enough yards and points to cover the spread at home. 

What you need to know about the Lions

Detroit, meanwhile, fell 48-45 to the Seattle Seahawks last week. A silver lining for Detroit was the play of TE T.J. Hockenson, who caught eight passes for two TDs and 179 yards. That receiving effort made it the first game that Hockenson has posted more than 100 yards receiving.

Swift will likely be out again for this game, but his replacement, Jamaal Williams has filled in admirably and leads the NFL is rushing touchdowns (6). The key in this game for Detroit will be the performance of its defense. If the Lions improve on the defensive side of the ball, they clearly have the firepower on offense to go into New England and give the Patriots all they can handle. 

How to make Patriots vs. Lions picks

The model has simulated Patriots vs. Lions 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Lions vs. Patriots? And which side of the spread holds all the value? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the spread you should be all over, all from the model on a 140-105 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.