Real Madrid vs. Manchester City: How a Champions League comeback could save the season for Pep Guardiola

Even after their impressive win over Newcastle United, Manchester City stand on the precipice. Domestically their best case scenario is surely little more than Champions League qualification and an FA Cup win. Though the latter would not be sniffed at, the greatest prize lies on the continent, and yet for once spring is approaching with City’s chances of European glory roundly dismissed by bookmakers. Seven clubs are rated as more likely winners of the Champions League by most odds makers, and Opta can pick 10 teams their model favors more than the 2023 champions.

No wonder, given that they head to the Santiago Bernabeu on Wednesday with a 3-2 deficit to overturn against the team that usurped them as champions of Europe. Getting past a superior Real Madrid could be one of the greatest challenges of Pep Guardiola’s managerial career, but if that were to happen, where might things go from there? Beat the champions and they could go all the way, right? Here’s what will need to happen for City to save their season and win the Champions League again.

1. Real Madrid take it for granted

The overwhelming emotion that Carlo Ancelotti felt at the Etihad Stadium on Tuesday night was not relief, jubilance or even triumphalism. A man who has seen it all over nearly three decades in management pronounced himself surprised. His front two had pressed better than anyone might have suspected. A makeshift backline had held together quite nicely. In midfield Madrid were running the game through Dani Ceballos. Some of the best attackers in the world found it hard going. “I didn’t think that at this time the team were able to make such a sacrifice as they have done this evening,” said Ancelotti.

There are no guarantees that the superstars can be convinced to do the yeoman’s work again this week. Indeed it will presumably be harder. It is one thing to successfully sell Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior on the value of their pressing before they have come face-to-face with this bad approximation of City, perhaps another when they have seen how poor their opponent can be. Who could blame Madrid if they approached the second leg convinced they’d already done the job?

That is not the only reason why things might go wrong for the holders. Ancelotti suggested last week that at least one of Antonio Rudiger and David Alaba, both injured for the first leg, might be back in time. Even if they are, a flare up in the early knockings might set the others adrift. If the veterans don’t play then Madrid will still have Raul Asencio flanked by central midfielders, Ferland Mendy the only true senior defender in the XI. The quartet may have won their manager’s plaudits in the first leg but such an inexperienced backline can be put under pressure.

City showed as much between the 15th and 40th minutes in the first leg. They pressed well, progressed the ball into the final third and kept it there. In that period City’s 136 completed passes were 80 more than their opponent. In that spell alone the combined 20 attacking third touches of Savinho and Kevin De Bruyne eclipsed everyone in Madrid white. City’s opener was like a throwback to their best, De Bruyne dropping short and fizzing a pass up the line, a gorgeous ball over the top by Jack Grealish, a thundering finish by Erling Haaland. 

That version of City can get the job done in the Bernabeu. From there, however, there will be work to be done.

2. New signings build on bright start

The other changes that Guardiola will surely be mulling for the Madrid game revolve around his new signings. It was something of a surprise that neither Nico Gonzalez nor, in particular, Omar Marmoush were trusted from the off in the first leg. Against Newcastle on Saturday they went a long way to proving that their manager had erred in not picking them.

Guardiola might be the first to admit that. He certainly did not stint in his praise of either, most notably labelling Gonzalez “mini-Rodri.” The most eye-catching example of that was the gaudy passing numbers, 100 of 103 passes reaching their target. Not since the end of last season had a City player reached triple figures for passing in a Premier League game. I won’t tell you who that was but I’ll give you a clue. He won the Ballon d’Or a few months later.

Then again the most profound thing that City lost when Rodri injured his ACL was not a passer. They’ve got those coming out their ears. What they have been missing is someone who can kill opposition counters before they get anywhere near the defensive third. That was particularly apparent against Real Madrid, where Vinicius could fly 20 yards up the pitch without anyone getting close to him. “I think the presence of Nico help us a lot because if there are 10 balls in 50-50 and he wins seven, you can run,” said Guardiola. “If he loses seven, they will run. His presence with long balls and [going] backwards where Rodri was really important.”

There is something else missing. No one would confuse Rodri with Phil Foden at the peak of his powers, but nine goals across all competitions was not to be sniffed at. The best City teams share the scoring weight, even if of late Erling Haaland functions as the first among equals. For too much of this season it has been their No.9 and the hope that Foden might get back to what he was in 2023-24. 

With Marmoush that has changed. His hat trick against Newcastle might have been the first goals he scored this season for his new club, but in almost every game the Egyptian has looked like a threat in behind, an explosive forward whose first instinct is to get towards goal. City have long needed more players like that, all the more so since Julian Alvarez left in the summer. Best of all for Guardiola, Marmoush seems to have clicked with Haaland.

Take City’s first goal against Newcastle. Haaland continues the false nine trick he has been trying when starting alongside Marmoush. He drops deep in the knowledge that his center back will follow him (what else can he do?). That opens up a lane for the No.7 to dart into. All it takes is Ederson dropping that ball into the space vacated and City are through.

His hat trick goal also had an off ball assist from Haaland. Marmoush isn’t the only one who scores goal like this, plenty came Foden’s way in a similar spot last season, but you sense that a pure forward like him will have quite remarkable joy in the space that his No.9 creates. When Savinho has the beating of Lewis Hall, Dan Burn shuffles across. The problem for the Newcastle defense is that everyone else is warped by Haaland’s gravity (again, why wouldn’t you be?) They’re too focused on the back post run to spot the chasm they’ve left in prime shooting position. Marmoush isn’t.

Marmoush already seems to have settled in at City. He feels the same. “Our manager is of course one of the best in the world,” he said. “We have the best players in the world – I’d like to thank them. They’ve made me feel part of this family and made me feel very comfortable since the first day. This is what shows on the pitch – they help me show my qualities and feel a part of this family.”

If defensive signings such as Vitor Reis have been made with one eye on the future those further up the pitch are already helping with the here and now. Keep that up and there is a chance for City.

3. The draw breaks their way

Those chances would only grow if the draw were kind to them. For City the post-Madrid path is fairly clear. One of Atletico Madrid or Bayer Leverkusen would lie ahead of them. Both would represent sizeable challenges for the English champions. Both would fear City as much if not more than City fear them.

After that it’s time to hope for a few lucky breaks. Either Arsenal or Inter likely lie in wait in the quarterfinals. Both could be knocked off course by round of 16 opponents, but probably not given the underwhelming state of the quartet of PSV, Feyenoord, Milan and Juventus. Better to hope that they get an Arsenal where Bukayo Saka isn’t back to his best yet or an Inter without a few first choice midfielders.

In the semifinals it’s really quite simple. They’ll need someone to knock out Barcelona or Liverpool on their behalf. Ideally if they could take down Paris Saint-Germain too because those three might be the best teams in Europe right now. For two of them to fall before the semifinal feels unlikely but it happens all the time. That is how you end up with a Borussia Dortmund or 2022-23 Inter in the final. City might not be the strong favorite they usually are, but they’re more than good enough to fulfil the role of plucky upstart.

4. De Bruyne turns back time

The new signings can go some way to improving City’s odds. Few things would make a greater difference than the old guard getting back to what they were. Ilkay Gundogan seems to lack the dynamism required to attack the opposition penalty box while still covering for opposition counters. Bernardo Silva has gone from a player who would sneak out of the peripheries of a game with a telling intervention to one who just hovers on the peripheries of games. Most of all, Kevin De Bruyne is just not what he was.

Of course what he was is the best playmaker on the planet. This lesser version of De Bruyne, racked by injuries over the last two years, still has his moments: a man of the match display against Brentford, that telling goal against Leyton Orient. In the biggest games, however, the 33-year-old either finds himself outmuscled or not trusted by Guardiola. He might find that Marmoush ultimately steals his spot as Haaland’s foil before too long, but City’s chances of success are surely increased if they can get something like 2022-23 De Bruyne. Two years later he is seeing more of the ball and at best delivering about what he did last season in terms of underlying metrics.

De Bruyne’s waning influence

All stats per 90 minutes

The De Bruyne City have now is still really good. The De Bruyne City had wins Champions League ties on his own. If he just has a few more of those prime era games in the tank, there’s something in this for City.

5. Rodri plays four games…

… and they just so happen to be both legs of the Champions League semifinals, the final and whichever Premier League game he fancies to get some minutes in his legs. Rodri’s presence in the Champions League squad is a sign that there is a chance, or at least that after Kyle Walker went to AC Milan there was space to leave him in and make the maximum three additions to the squad. Since November, Rodri has been talking about a comeback. His manager’s public utterances have been more circumspect, insisting it doesn’t make sense to bring his best player back for a few games if it risks his role in 2025-26.

Doesn’t that change if those games are the biggest of the big? Given the value “mini-Rodri” brought in just one game against Newcastle, it has to be tempting to see what you can get from even a limited version of the real thing. After all, imagine City lifting the Champions League trophy in Munich come May. Can you see that happening without Rodri involved in some significant way?