SEC predicted order of finish 2024-25: Texas, Arkansas overrated; Kentucky underrated in preseason poll

The SEC released its preseason predicted order of finish on Monday ahead of the 2024-25 college basketball season. Alabama was picked to win in the annual preseason poll, and its star guard, Mark Sears, was given conference Player of the Year honors after deciding to skip the 2024 NBA Draft and return to school.

The Crimson Tide are coming off their first Final Four appearance in school history and return a bulk of the roster that got them there, including star forward Grant Nelson — the hero of Alabama’s Sweet 16 victory over North Carolina. Alabama coach Nate Oats brought in a robust transfer portal haul, which includes guards Chris Youngblood (USF), Aden Holloway (Auburn), Houston Mallette. (Pepperdine), and big man Clifford Omoruyi (Rutgers).

Auburn was picked to finish second, followed by Tennessee, Arkansas and Texas A&M. The Tigers are coming off a loss in the first round of the NCAA Tournament to Yale and bring back SEC Player of the Year candidate Johni Broome.

Here is the full poll, followed by overrated and underrated observations from the predicted order of finish.

SEC preseason predicted order of finish

Overrated: Texas

Predicted finish: 7

Texas debuted at No. 16 in the AP Top 25 poll released on Monday. The Longhorns, one of nine SEC teams ranked in the initial poll, were picked to finish seventh in the SEC in their inaugural season as a member. 

Texas’ roster won’t be short of talent. Coach Rodney Terry reloaded by adding Jordan Pope (Oregon State), Tramon Mark (Arkansas) and Arthur Kaluma (Kansas State) via the transfer portal. The Longhorns also welcome Tre Johnson, the No. 6 overall recruit from the 2024 recruiting cycle, per 247Sports. For the most part, the SEC poll looks pretty accurate, but I wouldn’t count out Kentucky or Ole Miss finishing ahead of Texas in the final standings.

Underrated: Georgia

Predicted finish: 11

Georgia has one of its best basketball rosters in program history but still projects to finish No. 11 in the SEC because of conference depth. The headliner is five-star forward Asa Newell, the No. 19 overall player in the 2024 recruiting cycle, according to 247Sports. He is Georgia’s third highest-ranked commitment in the 247Sports era — behind former five-star prospects Anthony Edwards and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope — and a projected first-round pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. 

Georgia coach Mike White also added former Vanderbilt star Tyrin Lawrence to the roster via the transfer portal as a potential starter. The Bulldogs will be a popular dark-horse pick to make their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2015.

Overrated: Arkansas

Predicted finish: 4

John Calipari is now running the ship in Fayetteville after spending the last 15 seasons as the coach at Kentucky. Calipari rebuilt the Razorbacks roster by utilizing the transfer portal and bringing some former recruits from his time at Kentucky along with him to his next destination. But it may be hard for Calipari’s squad to live up to preseason expecations because of how good the SEC is top-to-bottom. 

Arkansas debuted at No. 16 in the AP poll. The headliner of Calipari’s transfer portal class was former Florida Atlantic star Johnell Davis, the No. 1 player in the CBS Sports Transfer Rankings. Davis was the 2023-24 AAC co-Player of the Year and should provide Calipari with ample scoring, but for the Razorbacks to live up to the hype, one of their newcomers (Karter Knox, Boogie Fland or Billy Richmond) will need to produce immediately. Arkansas will be an NCAA Tournament team, but more will have to go right than wrong for it to finish at or above its preseason billing.

Underrated: Kentucky

Predicted finish: 8

Kentucky was tabbed to finish sixth in our SEC expert picks behind Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Texas A&M and Arkansas. The Wildcats were tabbed to finish eighth in the SEC preseason poll despite debuting as the No. 23 in the AP poll. 

Kentucky, similar to Arkansas, has a lot of question marks that come with a brand-new roster and a first-year coach. Mark Pope had to work fast to build a roster after every scholarship player from the 2023-24 season departed the program. Pope’s offense that emphasizes ball movement, cutting to the rim and shooting 3-pointers should help them punch above their weight class in the SEC.

Preseason All-SEC First Team

Second Team

Third Team

Underrated: Collin Murray-Boyles, F, South Carolina

Murray-Boyles bypassed the 2024 NBA Draft to return to school for his sophomore year, and that decision could benefit not only his South Carolina team but his overall draft stock. Murray-Boyles averaged 10.4 points, 5.7 rebounds and 1.8 assists as a freshman, and he got better as the season went along. He scored a career-high 31 points in a win over Vanderbilt, which was part of a streak that saw the 6-foot-7 forward score at least 16 points in four consecutive games. Murray-Boyles is South Carolina’s leading returning scorer, and he should have more opportunities to put up more prolific offensive numbers.

Overrated: Zakai Zeigler, G, Tennessee

It’s hard to single out anyone on the five-player list because every player on first-team All-SEC is arguably a top-50 player in the sport, but Murray-Boyles should be the replacement if he has the breakout season most expect him to have. Zeigler is one of the best defenders in the country and averaged 6.1 assists last season en route to Tennessee reaching the Elite Eight for the second time in program history. His lack of scoring (11.8 PPG last season) could result in other players — such as Murray-Boyles — getting the nod.