USA vs. Sweden prediction, odds, line, time: 2025 4 Nations Face-Off picks from expert on 35-11 run

The inaugural 4 Nations Face-Off hockey tournament continues on Monday and the United States will be back in action when it takes on Sweden in its final matchup of round-robin play. Team USA has already clinched its spot in the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off Final and could be incentivized to rest some of its key players for the championship matchup. Meanwhile, Team Sweden needs Canada vs. Finland to go to overtime after losing to both squads in an extra period and then a victory in regulation on Monday over the Americans to advance to the final.

Despite having already clinched their spot in the final, Team USA is a -196 favorite (bet $196 to win $100) on the money line while Sweden is a +162 underdog in the latest USA vs. Sweden odds. The over/under is at 5.5 goals and the Americans are -1.5 favorites on the puck line (+132). Before making any Sweden vs. USA picks, be sure to see the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off predictions from SportsLine’s Matt Severance. 

Severance entered the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off as SportsLine’s No. 1 NHL expert, going 35-11-4 on NHL puck-line picks, returning more than $1,800 for $100 players. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Now, he has set his sights on USA vs. Sweden and just locked in his 4 Nations Face-Off picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the latest odds for Sweden vs. USA:

• USA vs. Sweden money line: USA -196, Sweden +162
• USA vs. Sweden over/under: 5.5 goals
• USA vs. Sweden puck line: USA -1.5 (+132)
• USA vs. Sweden picks: See picks at SportsLine
• USA vs. Sweden streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why you should back Team USA 

The United States is off to a dominant start, scoring a 6-1 victory over Finland in the opening match of round-robin play and then winning a 3-1 thriller over Canada on Saturday. The Americans set the tone against their biggest rivals by dropping the gloves three times in the first nine seconds of the win over Canada. After an early Connor McDavid goal, Team USA rallied to score three goals in a row to capture the victory in front of a hostile crowd in Montreal.

Jake Guentzel scored a first-period equalizer and then Dylan Larkin put the Red, White and Blue on top with a snap shot in the second period. Guentzel would add a second goal (his third of the tournament) on an empty net late in the third period to seal the victory. Connor Hellebuyck turned away 25 of the 26 shots that he faced and the Winnipeg goalkeeper has been one of the best in the NHL, though it’s possible that he might be rested along with forward Matthew Tkachuk (lower body) with Team USA already through to the final. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why you should back Team Sweden

Depending on the outcome of Monday afternoon’s matchup between Canada and Finland, Team Sweden could certainly be the more heavily incentivized of the two squads. The Swedes lost both of their first two matchups 4-3 but did collect two points by taking Canada and Finland to overtime. Now, if Canada and Finland go to overtime, Sweden can earn itself a rematch with the United States in the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off Final.

If either Canada or Finland capture a regulation result, Sweden will be eliminated but will still likely want to see out the tournament with a victory. Team Sweden outshot Finland 24-21 in its overtime loss on Saturday and it was only narrowly clipped by Canada in the same category (28-26), so the ice hasn’t been heavily tilted away from the Swedes by any means. Red Wings forward Lucas Raymond leads the team with three points over the first two games. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make 2025 4 Nations Face-Off picks

Severance is going Over 5.5 goals. He’s also found a critical x-factor that has him jumping on one side. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins USA vs. Sweden, and what critical x-factor do you need to know about? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Sweden vs. USA puck line to jump on, all from the top NHL expert who is on a 35-11 roll.