It’s FedEx Cup Playoffs time, which means there are seemingly endless looks at a variety of different wagers you could make for the first of three events to close out the 2020-21 PGA Tour season.
My formula all year has been some combination of recent tee-to-green form (last two months or last 20 rounds), loose history at a given course and mostly top 10s and top 20s over matchups and winners. That’s what I stayed with this week as well, and as the season has worn on, I’ve reduced the number of tickets I have out there. This is mostly selfish — I don’t want to track 29 Sunday scenarios — but it’s also worked for the most part and makes the closing kick more enjoyable.
With that lengthy prelude, here are the four bets I like for at The Northern Trust at Liberty National Golf Club. All numbers are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Rory McIlroy top 20 (+110): McIlroy’s struggles always (always!) get overblown. He’s longer than even odds to finish in the top 20, which he has done in seven of eight regular stroke-play PGA Tour events this season (non-majors and non-Players). Even when he didn’t have his best stuff early on at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational a few weeks ago in Memphis, he closed to finish T12. I’m not scared of the talent level in this field this week because nearly every tournament he plays has this level of talent. He finished T6 here in 2019 when The Northern Trust was last held at Liberty National.
Rick Gehman is joined by Kyle Porter and Jonathan Coachman to preview The Northern Trust at Liberty National. Follow & listen to The First Cut on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Hideki Matsuyama top 20 (+160): I’m actually glad he missed the cut last week because I think it’s providing a bit more value than it normally would. Matsuyama’s tee-to-green numbers over his last 20 rounds are a joke. He’s gaining 2.25 strokes per round from tee to green. Only Jon Rahm has been better at 3.0 (!). Matsuyama has also been the worst putter of anyone in the top 40 from tee to green over that same span of time. He’s absolutely hitting it right now, and I’m hoping for a bounce after the MC at the Wyndham Championship. In a four-round event, a top 25 or so seems to be his floor (he’s been T26 or better in five of his last seven events in which he’s made the cut).
Sergio Garcia top 20 (+300): I’m going back to the well again! The numbers are absolutely staggering. Garcia has been on a torrid run from tee to green. Just flushing it all over the planet, and he’s been living on that top-20 mark because he can’t roll it into the Grand Canyon. He’s been T26 or better in each of his last six events.
Harris English over Bryson DeChambeau (+100): In their last four similar events, English has clipped him in three of them, including two weeks ago when they played together in the final pairing at TPC Southwind. Only Jordan Spieth and Rahm have been better from tee to green than English has been over their last 20 rounds. DeChambeau ranks 12th in that category. I also think the finish in Memphis will affect both of them quite differently. I can see DeChambeau coming in tired and weary, while I can see English coming in energized about potentially making his first Ryder Cup team and motivated by a lousy back nine at TPC Southwind.
KVSP